How Vietnam Robusta Is Priced Against the London Market

Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, accounting for more than 40% of world Robusta output according to USDA-cited figures for 2025/26. Because of that weight, most commercial Vietnam Robusta does not trade at a price agreed from scratch. It trades as a spread to the London Robusta futures market, and buyers who understand that structure negotiate better and compare offers more accurately.

This article explains how the London market works, how differentials by grade are set, the difference between fixed and price-to-be-fixed contracts, what moves differentials and how to compare offers that arrive on different terms. All price figures below are illustrative only and are not current market levels.

The London Robusta futures market

The benchmark is the Robusta Coffee Futures contract on ICE Futures Europe, commonly called “London”. Key points:

• Quoted in USD per tonne, unlike New York Arabica, which is quoted in US cents per pound.
• Lot size of 10 tonnes.
• Delivery months of January, March, May, July, September and November.
• Deliverable coffee comes from a range of origins with quality and origin premiums or discounts, stored in exchange-approved warehouses.

Very little physical coffee is actually delivered against the exchange. Its role is price discovery and hedging. Exporters in Vietnam buy from farmers and collectors in VND per kg, hedge by selling futures, then sell physical coffee to buyers at a differential to a specific futures month.

How the physical price is built

For commercial Vietnam Robusta the formula is:

Physical price = London futures price (reference month) + differential

The differential is expressed in USD per tonne and can be positive or negative. It is always tied to delivery terms, typically FOB Ho Chi Minh City, and to a named futures month, usually the nearest month that falls after the shipment period. A September shipment, for example, is often priced against the November contract.

The differential captures everything that separates a specific physical lot from the futures benchmark: grade, processing, certification, local supply and demand, logistics to the port and the exporter’s margin.

Differentials by grade

Differentials vary by grade and move over the season. The table below shows the typical order and relative positioning; the numbers are illustrative only.

Grade (TCVN 4193:2014 style)	Screen and defect basis	Typical positioning vs London	Illustrative differential FOB HCMC
Robusta S13 commercial (often called G2)	90% on screen 13, 13% moisture, up to 150 defects per 300 g	Lowest; the local benchmark	London minus 50 to plus 50
Robusta S16 (G1)	90% on screen 16, 12.5% moisture, up to 60 defects	Moderate premium over S13	Plus 100 to plus 200
Robusta S18 natural or wet polished (G1)	90% on screen 18, 12.5% moisture, up to 30 defects	Higher premium	Plus 150 to plus 300
Robusta S18 washed	As S18, washed process	Premium over natural S18	Plus 250 to plus 450
Certified lots (for example Rainforest Alliance)	As underlying grade	Added premium	Often 200 to 400 over conventional

Two points matter for buyers. First, the S13 commercial grade is the local reference that most price reports refer to, so a quote for S18 should be judged by its premium over S13, not just its level. Second, differentials swing more than many buyers expect: in a tight season, even S13 can trade at a large premium to London. For how the grades are defined, see Vietnam Robusta grades and screen sizes explained.

Fixed price vs price-to-be-fixed

Outright (fixed) price

The buyer and exporter agree a single flat price, for example a stated USD per tonne FOB. This is simple and gives certainty on cost. The exporter usually calculates it from the current futures price plus the differential, and may add a margin for the price risk it absorbs. Small roasters and specialty buyers mostly buy this way.

Price-to-be-fixed (PTBF)

The contract fixes the differential, the futures month, the quantity and a fixation deadline, but not the futures component. One party fixes the price later by instructing a futures price, usually through the exporter’s broker.

• Buyer’s call is the most common arrangement for Vietnam Robusta. The buyer chooses when to fix, up to a deadline such as a set number of days before first notice day of the reference month.
• Seller’s call gives the exporter that choice.
• Fixing is done in whole lots of 10 tonnes, so a 19.2 t container is usually fixed as two lots with a small balance priced at the same level.
• If the buyer does not fix before the deadline, the contract usually allows a roll to the next month, with the price spread between the two months added to or subtracted from the differential.

PTBF suits traders and larger roasters who hedge on the exchange or who want to separate the decision on quality and supply (the differential) from the decision on market level (the futures).

What moves differentials

Futures prices reflect global supply and demand, including Brazil’s conilon crop, Indonesian and Ugandan output and certified stocks. Differentials for Vietnam react to more local factors:

• Crop size and timing. Harvest in the Central Highlands runs roughly from November to January. Early in the harvest, heavy farmer selling tends to push differentials lower; late in the season, when stocks are thin, they tend to widen.
• Farmer holding behaviour. When farmers expect higher prices, they hold coffee and exporters must pay more to secure supply, lifting differentials.
• Currency. Farmers sell in VND. When the VND weakens against the USD, a given dollar price means more dong for farmers, which can ease local supply and soften differentials. A stronger VND tends to have the opposite effect.
• Weather news. Drought in the dry season or excessive rain at harvest affects both yield and quality expectations.
• Freight and logistics. Container availability and freight rates matter more for CFR and CIF offers, but tight port logistics can also affect FOB differentials.
• Regulatory and traceability demand. Lots with verified traceability documentation for buyers subject to rules such as the EU deforestation regulation can command extra premiums.

Reading the local VND price

Vietnamese media and exporters quote a domestic farm gate price in VND per kg, usually for dried Robusta in Dak Lak and neighbouring provinces. It tracks London closely and is a useful check on offers.

To convert, divide the VND per kg price by the exchange rate and multiply by 1,000. With illustrative figures of 100,000 VND/kg and 25,000 VND per USD, the farm gate price equals 4,000 USD/t. The exporter then adds the cost of drying to export moisture, hulling, sorting and grading (with weight losses from removed defects), bagging, transport to Ho Chi Minh City, port charges, financing and margin. For a graded S18 lot, those costs plus the grade premium explain most of the gap between the farm gate price and the FOB offer.

If an FOB offer is close to or below the converted farm gate price, ask why. It may reflect an old contract, a hedged position or a lower grade than the one stated.

Fine Robusta and specialty lots

Fine Robusta, washed and honey Robusta in small lots and experimental fermentation lots are priced outright, usually in USD per kg or per tonne, based on cup score, lot size and processing cost. London sets a floor for farm gate prices, but the price of an 82 point fine Robusta micro-lot is set mainly by quality and scarcity. See the guide to fine Robusta and Vietnamese Arabica exporters for how those lots are offered.

A worked example (illustrative numbers)

The following numbers are invented to show the mechanics. They are not market prices.

A buyer wants one 20ft container, 320 bags of 60 kg (19.2 t), Robusta S18 natural, shipment in September.

1. Reference month: November London.
2. Agreed differential: plus 200 USD/t FOB Ho Chi Minh City, buyer’s call PTBF.
3. Fixing: the buyer fixes two lots when November London trades at an illustrative 4,000 USD/t.
4. FOB price: 4,000 + 200 = 4,200 USD/t.
5. Contract value: 4,200 x 19.2 = 80,640 USD FOB.
6. Freight and insurance: if the illustrative freight to the destination port is 90 USD/t and insurance about 10 USD/t, the CIF equivalent is roughly 4,300 USD/t.

If the buyer had instead waited and fixed at an illustrative 3,800 USD/t, the FOB price would have been 4,000 USD/t. The differential did not change, only the market level. That separation is the main reason larger buyers prefer PTBF.

How to compare Vietnam Robusta offers

Offers often arrive on different bases. Normalise them before comparing.

Offer	Basis	Illustrative quote	Adjustments to FOB equivalent	FOB equivalent
A	Outright CIF, S18 natural	4,320 USD/t	Minus freight 90, minus insurance 10	4,220 USD/t
B	PTBF, S18 natural, plus 200 FOB vs November	4,000 + 200	None, at the same illustrative futures level	4,200 USD/t
C	Outright CFR, S16	4,150 USD/t	Minus freight 90	4,060 USD/t

Then check the terms that do not show up in the price:

• Same futures month for PTBF offers, or adjust for the spread between months.
• Same grade and spec: screen, moisture, defects and processing. Offer C looks cheaper but is a lower grade.
• Packaging: jute only vs jute with GrainPro liner adds cost.
• Payment terms: 30% T/T deposit plus 70% against bill of lading copy vs L/C at sight, which carries bank fees.
• Quality and weight terms: final at loading with a surveyor certificate (Cafecontrol, SGS or Cotecna) vs final at destination.
• Shipment period: a later shipment may be priced against a different month.

Send your Robusta spec

If you want Vietnam Robusta quotes on a comparable basis, send your spec with grade, volume, shipment period, destination and whether you prefer outright or PTBF pricing. You will receive a reply within 24 business hours, and your request is matched with up to 3 Vietnamese exporters or processors, who quote and work with you directly. The service is free for buyers and an NDA can be signed on request.